As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the financial landscape of Donald Trump’s media company, Trump Media and Technology Group, is looking gloomy. On Oct. 31, shares of the company, trading under the ticker DJT, plummeted nearly 12 percent. It was a second consecutive day of steep declines after a volatile trading session. This latest plummet came on the heels of an incredible 22 percent fall the day before. These events effectively erased a substantial portion of the company’s recent gains.
Trump Media stock has seen dramatic fluctuations in the days leading up to the Nov. 5 presidential election. The company, which is majority-owned by the former president, was halted twice during the morning trading hours on Oct. 31 due to volatility, CNBC reported. These rapid drops have raised questions about investor confidence and the true viability of the company.
The recent downturn in DJT shares severely impacted Trump’s personal wealth. Prior to the selloff, Trump’s net worth was estimated between $7.5 billion and $10 billion, mainly because of his majority stake in Trump Media, which had briefly elevated its market capitalization to $10.8 billion. Now, with the stock’s plummet—culminating in a 41 percent drop over just three days—his stake has decreased in value from $5.9 billion to about $3.5 billion, resulting in a whopping $2.4 billion drop in net worth, according to CNN.
Several factors have contributed to this upheaval for Trump Media. Market analysts suggest that the stock’s performance is closely tied to the increasingly racial charged narrative of Trump’s campaign, reports The New York Times. One standout event was the infamous rally at Madison Square Garden last month, where racist remarks from comedian Tony Hinchcliffe about Puerto Rico sparked major backlash.
The future of Trump Media seems shaky, especially if Trump loses the election, Fortune reports. And Trump’s campaign seems concerned about female voters. Kamala Harris has a major edge with women voters, and women voters outpace men at the polls. Women make up about 55 percent of early voters, compared to men at around 45 percent, according to a Politico analysis of early voting data from several key states.
On top of this, a stock market-based prediction model has given Harris a 69 percent chance of winning the presidential election. The model, which reflects the Dow’s year-to-date performance, has a 99 percent confidence rating, Morning Star reports. Harris’s likelihood has dropped slightly from 72 percent two weeks ago, as the Dow declined. The model’s accuracy lies in the historical correlation between economic optimism and voting behavior, suggesting people often vote based on economic conditions. While not foolproof, the model outperforms many others used on Wall Street.
