I was recently in Carson, CA, (where Brandy & Ray-J grew up; remember the R&B Group The Boys in the ’90s?) and the car wash manager said his workers were fearful of coming into work due to the ICE raids. In Philly, there was an ICE raid at another car wash, rounding up workers. Many are mistaken thinking just criminals are being targeted, Trump’s border czar said anyone in the country illegally, is in play. For example, Cardi B’s uncle, who is Dominican, was apparently here illegally and rounded up by the Feds.
I also heard from an executive in the advertising industry that they had millions of dollars of advertising deals cut due to the advertiser’s concern about tariffs. These weren’t things I was reading about, they were happening in close proximity to me. On Tuesday, the closely watched CPI report showed inflation was not decreasing, it was now increasing, more than economists expected. Earlier in the week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to lower interest rates.
Regardless of where you land on tougher illegal immigration enforcement and correcting Biden’s (and VP Kamala Harris’) record on this specific issue, my concern is not directional and one of understanding. I believe Biden was so bad and loose on illegal immigration, that he clumsily set a trap for the current administration to break something, while carrying out the fastest and most aggressive ICE enforcement action in U.S. history.
Does the public understand the heavy costs or do they just understand the immediate benefits and headlines? Politicians have done a poor job at keeping the true costs of a historic illegal immigration crackdown, a mystery. They were really good at selling the benefits, hiding the costs, and giving us a lot of spook representation of the issue (distant from reality, the facts, and factors).
Tariffs were announced by President Donald Trump against China, Mexico, and Canada but were quickly delayed for Mexico and Canada. Most economists agree, that tariffs generally and predictably increase prices for small businesses and consumers in the short term. For steel, for example, this impacts housing and the auto industry. Ford’s CEO described the tariff environment as complete chaos. Do you know who is likely to fit the bill for the tariffs? They say when you look in a room and don’t know who the mark or sucker is, it’s you. Did you know egg prices increased by 15 percent in January and hit an all-time high (Bird Flu)?
Right now, you also have a speculative AI bubble that is likely on the verge of popping with China’s DeepSeek’s changing the game and challenging trillion-dollar assumptions. Right now, the stock market is dominated by less than 10 companies losing money on AI (but making profits elsewhere), expecting AI-specific profits at the other end of the rainbow, later on.
My message is more about a way of thinking versus a political position. Are those who cheer on the aggressive illegal immigration crackdown that could impact millions of consumers and hundreds of thousands of small businesses prepared to pay the price? Is that person giggling in front of Fox News ready to pay $15 for an Egg McMuffin or $75 for a car wash or see their thin small business margins at their restaurant be wiped out from having to increase prices? Is the average person ready to get laid off from their job during a recession or pay $20 for a batch of strawberries, locally picked by migrants? Who do you think the few Black farmers that are left are hiring to stay afloat? Did you know that 42 percent of all U.S. farm workers are undocumented?
Again, this is not about whether the laws should be enforced as promiscuous illegal immigration has a disproportionately harmful impact on Black Americans specifically, including an erosion of the minimal political power we do have. There is also a question of timing. We can do some bold and aggressive things in life but we just can’t do everything, simultaneously. With America vulnerable to inflation and increasing political volatility, doing the heavy enforcement the way it is being done may help tip America into a recession as Goldman Sachs recently highlighted. Did you know unemployment is already spiking in Washington D.C with a 36% increase in just a week?
Remember, the spook seller only deceptively preaches the benefits, never the costs, and how everything adds up and nets out, so you can think more intelligently and balanced about political issues. Everyone liked the $2,000-plus in stimmy checks and PPP loans during the pandemic, no one liked the tens of thousands of dollars of inflation that silently ate into their wallets over the last few years. Inflation is sneaky and often operates in stealth mode, attacking the most vulnerable and the Black American middle class, the hardest.
There is a price to be paid for everything, there is no free lunch. Before we can speak intelligently about a political issue, we need to know both positive and negative factors, the cost and the benefits, and how everything will likely net out. This is what I call a more scientific political orientation.
Do you want to think more scientifically about politics versus the standard Red versus Blue (Republican versus Democrat gangbangin’)? Well, I wrote a book just for you. Learn more about Science vs Spook: 50 Lessons in Black American Political Science and Culture, which will be released on May 8th, 2025 but you can buy the book on pre-sale and save 30%.
I fed my favorite AI tool Claude AI some notable stories and asked about the most vulnerable sectors with the current illegal immigration crackdown. Just remember, the crackdown is likely to be on YOUR wallet. It is also true the long-term benefits may outweigh the short-term costs.
- Agriculture & Food Production
- Dairy farms
- Meat processing
- Produce picking
- Farm operations
- Food packing
- Service Industry
- Restaurants
- Hotels/Motels
- Cleaning services
- Landscaping
- Car washes
- Construction
- Residential
- Commercial
- Roofing
- Concrete work
- General labor
- Retail/Hospitality
- Small retail
- Food service
- Warehousing
- Transportation
- Maintenance
