A question such as whether the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its next meeting can be listed as a contract with a live price.
For anyone who follows jobs reports, inflation releases and Fed decisions, these markets add one more read on what traders expect.
This guide compares four platforms that list or have announced economic event contracts.
It also covers what to check in a contract before taking a position.
Key Takeaways
- An economic event contract settles on a named data release or policy decision, such as a jobs report or a Fed meeting.
- In the binary structure CME Group describes, a correct position pays $1 per contract and an incorrect one pays $0.
- A contract’s price reflects what traders expect at that moment. It is not an official forecast.
- A market listed on a platform is not proof that you can trade it in your state.
How an economic data release becomes a contract
The Bureau of Labor Statistics September 2026 jobs report, released October 2, 2026, put the national unemployment rate at 4.2%. Payrolls rose by 29,000, and the unemployment rate for Black workers increased to 7.0%.
A prediction market turns the next release into a question, such as whether the October unemployment rate will land in a given range. BLS has scheduled that report for November 6, 2026.
The CFTC notes that event contracts are often built on yes-no scenarios with only two possible outcomes. In CME Group’s description, prices run from $0.01 to $0.99. A correct position is credited $1 per contract, and an incorrect one pays $0.
CME’s own example uses a contract on whether GDP growth will be at or above 2.25% in a quarter, priced at $0.45.
If growth comes in short of that, the trader’s loss is limited to the $0.45 paid plus fees.
CME describes that price scale as the market’s view of likelihood, so $0.45 reads as roughly 45%.
Reading a price this way draws on basic probability theory, but the number is still a quoted price at one moment, not an official forecast.
Four platforms that list economic event contracts
The entries below draw on each platform’s published pages and announcements.
This is not a performance ranking, and a listed category does not confirm that a specific contract is open today.
1. Fanatics Markets
For readers who want to bet on economic indicators, Fanatics Markets groups its economy contracts under Inflation, Unemployment, Jobs Added, ECB Interest Rates and Fed Decision.
On October 15, 2026, the page listed a Fed Decision in Oct 2026 market with outcomes including 0bps (Unchanged) and Cut <=25bps.
Costs and access: the page footer links to a fee disclosure and to a list of where the platform is live.
It also states that trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone.
2. Kalshi
Kalshi lists contracts tied to CPI inflation, the unemployment rate and Federal Reserve rate decisions.
A Federal Reserve working paper, Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets, examined those markets as a real-time read on expectations.
Costs and access: Kalshi’s help center says some markets carry fees that differ from others, often around special events. The fee for a specific order appears through an info icon on the order screen.
3. FanDuel Predicts
FanDuel and CME Group launched FanDuel Predicts on December 22, 2025, starting in Alabama, Alaska, South Carolina, North Dakota and South Dakota.
The launch release named GDP and CPI among the economic indicators planned for the platform.
Costs and access: the rollout was set to reach other states through early 2026. Check current state availability and the fee shown on each contract.
4. Polymarket
Polymarket runs two separate products. Its help center says Polymarket.com serves international users, while US residents must use the Polymarket US app, and accounts are not connected between the two.
Costs and access: much of the coverage of its inflation and Fed rate contracts has focused on the international site.
US readers should confirm which economic markets the US app lists and what it charges.
What to check before taking a position
Read the contract’s wording before treating its price as useful information. Four checks cover most of the risk.
Match the measure. The unemployment rate comes from the BLS household survey, while payroll job gains come from a separate survey of employers.
National unemployment, the rate for a demographic group and payroll growth are different numbers, so confirm which one the contract uses.
Inflation contracts need the same care. CPI can be reported as a one-month or a twelve-month change, and a threshold means little until you know which period it applies to. A hotter or cooler CPI print can also reset expectations for Fed rate cuts, so inflation and rate contracts can shift at the same time.
Find the settlement rule. Look for the named data source, the reference period and the deadline for a decision. Two questions with similar headlines can settle under different rules.
Count the full cost. Add fees to the purchase price before you compare positions. If you plan to exit before settlement, you need another trader willing to take the other side at a price you accept.
Check access. Availability differs by platform and by state, and some products launched in a handful of states before expanding. A listing you can see online may still be closed to you.
Final thoughts
Economic event contracts turn scheduled releases, such as the November 6 jobs report, into prices that move as expectations shift.
The four platforms above differ in which indicators they list, how they charge fees and where they are open.
Read each contract’s settlement terms and confirm your eligibility first. That keeps a quoted price in its proper place, as one signal among several.
FAQ
What is an economic event contract?
It is a contract that settles on the outcome of a named data release or policy decision, such as a CPI print or a Fed meeting.
In the binary structure CME Group describes, it pays $1 per contract if the chosen outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.
Does a contract’s price predict the data?
No. CME describes the price as the market’s view of likelihood at that moment. It can move quickly and is not an official forecast.
How much can I lose on one position?
In CME’s structure, the most you can lose is what you paid to enter the trade plus fees.
When is the next jobs report?
BLS has scheduled the October 2026 Employment Situation report for November 6, 2026.