Source: Anadolu / Getty
With the November election approaching, a Sept. 29 poll from political analyst Nate Silver shows Vice President Kamala Harris not only performing well in all seven swing states, but actually holding a narrow lead over Donald Trump in them as well. The states in play are Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Securing their electoral votes is crucial for both candidates seeking the Oval Office.
In his detailed forecast model–which ran 70,000 simulations–Harris emerged victorious in the pivotal states 15,273 times, while the second most likely scenario—Trump winning all seven—occurred 13,912 times. Silver noted that there is approximately a 40% chance that either candidate could win all seven swing states. As of Sunday morning, he assessed Harris’ likelihood of securing the Electoral College at 56% compared to Trump’s 44%.
Nate Silver shared that when asked for a straightforward prediction between Harris and Trump, he emphasizes the probabilistic nature of his poll forecasts. He acknowledged that there are times when external factors might not be accurately reflected in the model, but currently, he believes the probabilities provided are the best estimate available.
“To be clear, the forecast is that Harris will win the Electoral College 56% of the time — not that she’ll beat Trump by 12 points — in other words that the race is basically a toss-up,” he clarified in his blog post published Sunday. “There is a strong likelihood that this will be a close election right up through Election Day.”
Harris and Walz in Glendale, Az. Source: Andrew Harnik / Getty
Both candidates are aiming for a win in Arizona.
Swing (also known as battleground) states, are U.S. states where both major political parties have similar levels of support among voters. These states can swing either way in elections, making them crucial for determining the outcome of presidential races. Candidates often focus their campaigns on these states to gain the necessary electoral votes.
The Hill reported last week that Vice President Harris held a slim lead over former President Trump in six of the key battleground states, with Georgia in play. They drew their information from a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult released Sept. 26. That survey revealed that Harris outperformed Trump in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
However, a separate Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld survey released Oct. 1, indicated that Trump leads Harris in Arizona by three points, with 50% support compared to her 47.2%. Approximately 2% of voters remain undecided, with most leaning toward Trump. Views on the election’s outcome are nearly evenly divided, as 49.8% believe Trump will win, while 49.1% think Harris will come out on top. Arizona, crucial for both campaigns with its 11 Electoral College votes, was narrowly won by Biden in 2020 by fewer than 11,000 votes.
But for now, it’s still either one’s race to win–or lose.
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