For years, scientists and futurists have speculated about the emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI)—an AI system that can perform any intellectual task a human can, McKinsey reported. While AI has made impressive strides in recent years, AGI still remains an elusive goal. So, when will AGI arrive, and what will it mean for humanity?
AGI, distinct from today’s specialized AI systems, would possess the ability to reason, learn, and adapt across multiple domains without human intervention. It would surpass the capabilities of current AI models, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Google DeepMind’s AlphaFold, which excel in specific tasks but lack general problem-solving skills, Time reported.
Predictions about AGI’s arrival vary widely. Shane Legg, co-founder and chief AGI scientist at Google DeepMind, suggests there is a 50 percent chance AGI will be developed by 2028. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, anticipates that AI could surpass human cognitive abilities “in almost everything” within the next two to three years. On the other hand, more conservative estimates from academic researchers suggest AGI is decades, if not centuries, away, Windows Central reported.
Many AI experts AI will naturally progress toward AGI. Recent advancements support this theory. In 2022, OpenAI’s GPT-3.5 scored in the bottom 10 percent of human test-takers on the Uniform Bar Exam. Just months later, GPT-4 scored in the top 10 percent, demonstrating rapid improvement.
Industry insiders like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman to argue that AGI might emerge sooner than most expect. Altman has noted that continued scaling of AI models could lead to breakthrough capabilities, though he also cautions that there are still fundamental challenges to overcome, Business Insider reported.
The development of AGI carries profound implications. If AI surpasses human intelligence, it could revolutionize industries, automate vast sectors of the economy, and redefine the labor market. While some experts envision AGI leading to unprecedented economic growth, others warn of existential risks. Figures like Elon Musk and Geoffrey Hinton have expressed concerns about AGI’s potential to outpace human control, posing a threat to societal stability.
