“Prediction markets are some of the first products that allow direct bets on geopolitical events,” said Nicolas Vaiman, chief executive officer of Bubblemaps, in an email. “In cases involving war or conflict, information can circulate within a broader circle before becoming public. Combined with the fact that Polymarket generally only requires a wallet to trade, which allows for a high level of anonymity, this can create incentives for informed participants to act early.”
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