Bitcoin traded around $80,000 at the time of the article, up 38% from June lows under $58,000. Still, prices are down approximately 35% from the record high of over $126,000. Returning to that high would require a gain of roughly 53%.
Thorn highlighted bitcoin’s bullish recovery above its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks below it. Five consecutive weekly closes above that level have strengthened his conviction that the market had bottomed.
Positioning also supports the thesis, Thorn argued. Asset managers’ net long exposure through CME bitcoin futures had fallen 57% from the week of the record high, while several major trading firms substantially reduced ETF holdings. That’s a sign that fast money has left, leaving the market in much healthier shape.
“The fast money has left, the base stayed, and everything else is priced for perfection,” Thorn said.
Other investors have been buying the dip. Galaxy said spot bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC following the June low, suggesting renewed directional demand as arbitrage activity declined.
The firm sees rising U.S. debt, persistent deficits, and rising interest costs strengthening bitcoin’s appeal as a fixed-supply asset.
Meanwhile, institutional enthusiasm for stablecoins and tokenization, alongside fading interest in bitcoin, resembles sentiment around previous market lows, according to Thorn.