Solana has strong network growth, but with SOL still 71% below its peak, it looks more like a hold than a strong buy in 2026.
The FTX estate still holds about $321 million in SOL and releases it in monthly batches of roughly $16 to $17 million, a steady overhang that continues to limit upside.
Solana ETF inflows dropping from $419 million to $34 million show weak demand, keeping SOL from a strong buy case right now.
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Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) is trading around $85 today, about 71% below its peak price of $295. The FTX bankruptcy estate has been part of the reason the price keeps stalling: it still holds roughly $321 million worth of SOL and releases it in monthly batches of around $16 to $17 million to repay creditors.
Yet developer activity is growing, on-chain transactions are rising, and money is still coming in through ETF inflows. So, is Solana a good crypto to buy in 2026, or will the selling pressure keep winning?
Solana processed its highest transaction count ever in Q1 2026, hitting 10.1 billion transactions in a single quarter. Everyday transactions, excluding voting activity, averaged 112.6 million per day, 50% higher than the quarter before, which points to real usage rather than network noise.
Solana has also overtaken Ethereum in adjusted weekly stablecoin volume, handling 32.6% of global stablecoin transfers against Ethereum’s 27.8%. In February 2026 alone, stablecoins moving through Solana hit $650 billion, nearly tripling from January. PayPal expanded its PYUSD merchant pilot to Solana for cross-border payments in March, bringing more real payment activity onto the network.
The Alpenglow upgrade went live for validator testing on May 11, targeting transaction confirmation of around 150 milliseconds, with some estimates as low as 100. At that speed, Solana confirms a transaction about as fast as Google returns a search result, which is the level of performance serious payment apps need.
How Much Upside Does Solana Have Left?
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A lot of investors are starting to wonder how much upside Solana has left from here. SOL moved higher on improving network activity and renewed interest in fast blockchains, but much of that is already priced in, and fresh institutional buying has lagged.
SOL ETF inflows dropped for six straight months, falling from $419 million in November 2025 to just $34 million in April 2026. That fading buying pressure has made it harder for SOL to hold any gains it makes.
The FTX estate is still releasing SOL in batches through 2028, adding fresh supply just as the price starts to move. On top of that, Sui, Aptos, and Ethereum’s Layer-2 networks are getting faster and cheaper, giving developers more options than they had two years ago. Together, those factors make the year-end price range of $200 to $300 a tough target to hit.
What Could Push Solana (SOL) Higher This Year?
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Despite the ongoing pressure, a few things could push Solana higher this year and make it worth buying.
The Alpenglow upgrade is the most immediate catalyst, targeting a mainnet launch in Q3 2026 and aiming to cut transaction confirmation from 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds. Investors are already watching the launch closely, and a clean rollout could push SOL past the $100 resistance it last held in February.
Institutional money is moving into Solana, just not fast enough yet. JPMorgan projects that Solana ETFs could grow from $1 billion to $6 billion by mid-2026, but monthly inflows would need to cross $100 million consistently to get there, and so far they haven’t.
The CLARITY Act is the third catalyst. If it passes, the bill would permanently classify Solana as a commodity under federal law, giving fund managers who have stayed on the sidelines a legal reason to step in. Institutional buyers hold longer and commit bigger money than retail, which is exactly what SOL needs right now.
Solana As A Long-Term Investment In 2026
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Solana handled 41% of all on-chain spot trading volume in Q1 2026, more than Ethereum and all its Layer-2 networks combined. Visa, PayPal, and Stripe are all actively using the network, and stablecoin supply on Solana has reached $17 billion. The number of people using Solana daily has grown more than fourfold since early 2023.
However, SOL is still trading below its key moving averages, and early holders keep selling into any bounce. The FTX estate’s monthly releases run through 2028, so there is always more supply coming just as the price tries to run.
Some analysts put a base forecast of $330 to $350 on SOL by 2030, close to 300% above where it trades today. A year-end target of $200 to $300 is still in play if Alpenglow launches successfully and ETF inflows pick up. For investors willing to wait a few years, that makes SOL a hold rather than a clear buy.
What’s Next for Solana?
Solana has the network activity, the institutional partners, and the upgrade pipeline to make a credible case for higher prices. But the FTX estate’s monthly releases run through 2028, and that steady supply caps the price every time it starts to climb.
The two catalysts that matter are Alpenglow launching by Q3 and monthly ETF inflows crossing $100 million consistently. Until both happen, SOL is likely to stay range bound below $100.
For investors with a short time horizon, the FTX selling and the slow ETF inflows make SOL a pass right now. For those willing to hold into 2027 and beyond, the network fundamentals make it worth the wait, but only if Alpenglow delivers.
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