As is customary on the eve of a new NBA season, sports pundits, broadcasters, and
columnists tend to pump out their season predictions, ranking all team’s chances of success.
Of course, some of it is quite serious and scientific, using advanced data to come up with
projected totals for team wins, etc. Then the season actually starts, and that somewhat goes
out the window as fans start forgetting about predictions and enjoy the games instead.
That said, predictors are fairly unanimous that this is likely to be the Celtics’ season once
again. Sure, you will hear the odd pundit laying out the case that the eventual NBA
champions will be the Thunder, Knicks, 76ers, or Mavs, but the Celtics get the nod from the
vast majority. That’s the case in the preseason betting, too, which sees the Celtics at +300 to
retain the NBA Championship. It’s not just sportsbooks. The NBA released its general
manager survey last week, and 83% voted that the Celtics would win the NBA
Championship in 2025.
Continuation is key for the Celtics
Of course, punditry and betting odds don’t decide championships; players and coaches do.
The Celtics were dominant last season, winning the Eastern Conference by 14 games, never
dropping more than one game in any Playoff round, and putting up historic numbers in
several areas, including efficiency. They never looked like anything but champions from the
Opening Night in October 2023 to the final buzzer in Game 5 against the Mavs in June.
One of the reasons so many believe a repeat is likely is that the Celtics retain almost
everyone who made an impact last season. In fact, 13 players who made more than 93% of
the Celtics’ minutes last season returned – a record for an NBA Champion going into a new
season. It’s not an old team, either, and you might even argue that the Celtics have room to
grow.
Perhaps the most positive thing about the Celtics is that they truly feel like a team, not a
group of individuals. It might sound somewhat cliched and maybe contradictory when you
factor in stars like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, but it never felt like a team of superstars
or that there was dependency on any single player. Recent NBA Champions have usually
had that standout performer – Jokic, Antetokounmpo, James – on whom so much depended.
The Celtics never had that issue.
The most efficient offense in NBA history
Much of the debate in preseason focused on just how good the Celtics were historically
speaking. The numbers, of course, said a lot, with the Celtics, for example, outscored their
opponents by an average of 10.7 pts per game, which is the 5 th best record of all time. They
also scored 122.2 pts per 100 possessions, making them the most efficient in NBA history.
There are plenty more stats like that, many of which draw parallels to the Golden State
Warriors in the mid-2010s.
One criticism, perhaps, is that the Celtics’ opponents were not historically good. Sure, they
faced some good teams, but the Playoff run was relatively easy. They also had luck with
injuries, both in staying healthy themselves and seeing their opponents lose key players at
important junctures. Yet, all that still stands as we go into the 2024/25 season. Some teams
Oklahoma City Thunder, in particular – have strengthened; others, like the New York Knicks adding Karl-Anthony Towns, have made moves that some believe will be the final piece.
But is it enough to close the gap? Sportsbooks, the vast majority of general managers, and
most pundits do not think so. The Celtics built a winning machine under the hand of Joe
Mazzulla last season, and they brought everyone back for the new season. It’s now been the
longest stretch without a repeat champion since the 1970s. Everything looks in place for that
stretch to come to an end.
